Martin Armstrong:銀行が Bitcoin 所有者の口座を凍結…という噂について。


・大量の Bitcoin 所有者の脱税を予め防止する意図がある筈…と Martin Armstrong が述べている。


The story running around on Bitcoin.com news tells the tale of an individual who legally sold large amounts of cryptocurrency at a profit found that Clydesdale Bank decided to freeze all assets involving people who had been involved in cryptocurrencies. The man had no criminal convictions and had always complied with British laws on financial regulations and taxation. Nevertheless, he told Bitcoin.com: “My bank account has been blocked by Clydesdale Bank without any warning or explanation and my money frozen.” The bank manager said that the bank no longer wanted to do business with “that kind of people” who were involved in cryptocurrencies.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/banks-freezing-cyrpotcurrency-accounts-under-presumption-of-guilt/


イギリスの銀行が Bitcoin 所有者の口座を予告なしに凍結





In a chilling but sadly all-too-familiar sequence of events, UK banks have been targeting cryptocurrency owners. Individuals who have cashed out large amounts of cryptocurrency ? legitimately ? have had their assets frozen and accounts locked without warning, fueled by fears of money laundering and a general distrust of bitcoin. One victim even claims to have had their house raided and computer equipment seized in a follow-up operation by UK police.


This week, one British cryptocurrency figure discovered, to his peril, the speed and severity of the crackdown that’s initiated once a UK bank deems an individual to be persona non grata. The man, who we’ll refer to as John, has been involved in cryptocurrency for many years, actively mining it, occasionally trading it, and operating as a senior figure in the project team for a top 100 cryptocurrency. He has no criminal convictions, and has always accorded to UK laws concerning financial regulations and taxation. He told news.Bitcoin.com:

I had my bank account frozen and my funds taken hostage by Clydesdale Bank without any warning or explanation…I was eventually told by the branch manager that it no longer wanted to do business with “these type of people” [i.e cryptocurrency users]

ref: https://news.bitcoin.com/funds-frozen-account-closed-uk-banks-target-cryptocurrency-owners/


James Rickards:中国経済の減速傾向に関税戦争が拍車



・なので、中国の外貨備蓄の減少について、James Rickards が具体的な数値を挙げて解説している箇所を記録。


・James Rickards は別の記事で、米中間の武力衝突の可能性が予想されているより高くなったと述べている。その根拠として…

  ・米中間の貿易戦争の高まりで、政府実力者の間で Xi Jinping に対する批判が高まっている。
  ・Xi Jinping は面子にこだわるから、Trump に屈することは多分ない。
  ・その不満を逸らすために、Xi Jinping は武力衝突を選択する可能性が高まる。

・なお、James Rickards は米情報機関と密接な関わりがあるので…。


New Reality of China’s Failing Economy Is Coming Soon

China had about $4 trillion in its capital account in early 2014. That amount had fallen to about $3 trillion by late 2016. Much of that collapse was due to capital flight for fear of Chinese devaluation, (which did occur in August 2015 and again in December 2015).

China’s $3 trillion of remaining reserves is not as impressive as it sounds. $1 trillion of that amount is invested in illiquid assets (hedge funds, private equity funds, direct investments, etc.) This is real wealth, but it’s not available on short notice to defend the currency or prop up banks.

Another $1 trillion of Chinese reserves are needed as a precautionary fund to bail-out the Chinese banking system. Many observers are relaxed about the insolvency of Chinese banks because they are confident about China’s ability to rescue them. They may be right about that, but it’s not free. China needs to keep $1 trillion of dry powder to save the banks, so that money’s off the table.

That leaves about $1 trillion of liquid reserves to defend the Chinese currency, if so desired. At the height of the Chinese capital outflows in 2016, China was losing $80 billion per month of hard currency to defend the yuan.

At that tempo, China would have burned through $1 trillion in one year and become insolvent. China did the only feasible thing, which was to close the capital account; (interest rate hikes and further devaluation would have caused other more serious problems).

This distress might have been temporary if China had managed to maintain good trading relations with the U.S. But that proved another chimera. The trade war, which has broken out between the U.S. and China has damaged Chinese exports and raised costs on Chinese imports at exactly the time China was counting on a larger trade surplus to help it finance its mountain of debt.

Now trade is drying up and China is stuck with debt it can’t repay or rollover easily. This marks the end of China’s Cinderella growth story, and the beginning of a period of economic slowdown and potential social unrest.

The coming Chinese crack-up is not just theoretical. The hard data supports the thesis.

ref: https://dailyreckoning.com/new-reality-of-chinas-failing-economy-is-coming-soon/


Martin Armstrong:2032年、中国が経済力でアメリカを凌いでいる筈だ。 (+追加2)





・Martin Armstrong のタイトルの予想は過去記事でも紹介したような気がするが、彼のこの予想は 3年前から変わっていない。


・0:35 あたり。2032年には中国がアメリカを経済力で凌ぐだろう。


・Q&A with Martin Armstrong - Full length


This is clearly the end of the West as a world economic power. The financial capital of the world will be shifting to China and Asia after 2032.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/2032-how-hard-do-we-fall/


(以下、2018-08-08 追加分)


・Martin Armstrong が、この主張をまとめたレポートを 1万円ほどで一般向けに販売しだしたという話を記録。


China on the Rise - How-When-Why China Becomes the new Financial Capital of the World by Martin Armstrong

China on the Rise Report

By 2032, China will dethrone the United States to become the world’s leading economic powerhouse. This cycle has been exasperated by government mismanagement and failed economic policies centered in socialism. With special attention to the Chinese yuan and Shanghai composite, this report examines how, when, and why China will become the new financial capital of the world.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/china/china-on-the-rise-how-when-why-china-becomes-the-new-financial-capital-of-the-world-by-martin-armstrong/


・今後、中国経済は低成長モードへと移行するのは避けがたい…このように誰しも予想している筈だが、Martin Armstrong は依然として中国経済を楽観視している。



(以下、2018-08-17 追加分)


・Martin Armstrong が読者からの質問に応えて、中国が経済力でアメリカを凌ぐようになるという彼の予想の根拠を述べている。


Why is Asia Rising Against the West

Some people have written in and asked why we have issued a report that shows how and when China will displace the USA and the West as the Financial Capital of the world. Let me explain some interesting facts. If we look at the top ten cities for tourism, you will find that the half is in Asia. The world’s most visited city is actually Hong Kong. The top two are Asia as well.


So to answer those who ask WHY will China surpass the USA, the answer is simple. The trend is already set in motion and the West just has to that Marxism not only violated the Ten Commandments, but it suppresses human ingenuity and stunts economic growth. The more we move to try to save the collapse of socialism, it is like Erdogan refusing to accept responsibility for the collapse of the Turkish lira.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/southeast_asia/why-is-asia-rising-against-the-west/




So to answer those who ask WHY will China surpass the USA, the answer is simple. The trend is already set in motion and the West just has to that Marxism not only violated the Ten Commandments, but it suppresses human ingenuity and stunts economic growth.




(2018-06-23) 作成
(2018-08-08) 追加
(2018-08-17) 追加

Martin Armstrong:カリフォルニアの不動産市場の下落が始まる。


California Real Estate Peaks and Begin a Crash

California has joined the states with not just the highest taxes in America, but it has become one of those states that people are just leaving resulting i9n a net outward-migration. There is a logical consequence when a state becomes a place people are trying to flee from ? real estate MUST decline in value. Already, sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums in Southern California has declined 11.8% year over year. Prices rallied and reached a record high in 2018. The median price paid for all Southern California homes that were sold in June 2018 was a record high reaching $536,250, according to CoreLogic. This was reported as a 7.3% increase compared to June of 2017. When you see such short-term surges in a market, that is often the sign of how every market peaks. Real estate is no exception.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/california-real-estate-peaks-and-begin-a-crash/


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