南海会社のバブルと Issac Newton の投資

はじめに


・Issac Newton が南海会社のバブルに投資して大損をした…という話は有名(特に下の引用の最後の文句)だが、その経緯の詳しい状況を Simon Black が記載しているので紹介する。

一部引用



20170920_isaac.jpg


In the late spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton decided to sell his stocks.

Newton had been an investor in the South Sea Company, a famous enterprise which effectively commanded a trading monopoly with South America.

The investment had already made Newton a lot of money, he was up more than 100% in a very short time.

In fact, investors were clamoring to buy up the South Sea Company’s stock, and the share price kept climbing. And climbing.

Newton sensed that the market was getting overheated. It no longer made sense to him. So he sold.

There was only one problem: the share price of the South Sea Company kept climbing.

All of Newton’s friends were getting rich. So, against his better judgement, Newton went back in, repurchasing shares at more than three times the price of his original stake.



The market then collapsed, and he lost virtually all his life savings.

20170920_chartsouthsea.jpg


The experience is said to have given rise to his bemused response:

“I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men.”

Ref: https://www.sovereignman.com/market-bubble/advice-from-the-trader-who-made-1-billion-in-1929-22406/


(2017-09-20)
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