中国の不良債権は GDP の 5.3%(公式発表)ではなく 20% 以上だ

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・…という説を紹介。


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Analyst Lays Out China's "Doomsday" Scenario


The first time we laid out the dire calculations about what is perhaps the biggest mystery inside China's financial system, namely the total amount of its non-performing loans, by former Fitch analyst Charlene Chu we called it a "neutron bomb" scenario, because unlike virtually every other rosy forecast the most dire of which topped out at around 8%, Chu argued that the amount of bad debt in China was no less than a whopping 21% of total loans.




So if Chu held the wildly outlier view nearly two years ago that China's NPLs amount to 21% of total, what is her latest estimate? The number is a doozy: in her latest report, Chu estimates that bad debt in China’s financial system will reach as much as Rmb51 trillion , or $7.6 trillion, by the end of this year, more than five times the value of bank loans officially classified as either non-performing or one notch above." That estimate implies a bad-debt ratio of 34%, orders of magnitude above the official 5.3% ratio for those two categories at the end of June.

20170818_china_.jpg


Ref: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-17/analyst-lays-out-chinas-doomsday-scenario


(2017-08-18)
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