David Yager:電気自動車が急激に普及する…という話はマヤカシだ

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Electric Vehicles No Threat To Oil Prices Anytime Soon



20170729_ev.jpg

Beware of looming electricity and lithium shortages. When Bloomberg did its analysis it predicted, “Electricity consumption from EVs will grow to 1,800 terawatt-hours in 2040, or 5 percent of global power demand, from 6 terawatt-hours in 2016”. This is a staggering 3,000 percent increase. Where will it come from? Better not be coal or possibly even natural gas. At a conference held April 3 in Calgary sponsored by ARC Energy Research Institute (AERI) a representative of Bruce Power, the Ontario nuclear electricity generator, said to economically reduce carbon emissions recharging EVs only made sense at night, not during peak load hours. If everybody drove their EVs to work and tried to plug in at the office it would overload the system. Meanwhile, there is speculation whether the world has enough lithium to build all the batteries skyrocketing EV growth would ensure. One analyst has predicted lithium shortages as soon as 2023 and have already delayed Tesla’s output. The solution, which is not all bad for the oil industry, is dual fuel whereby the battery is smaller, the lithium required per vehicle is lower, and mobility is augmented by a smaller ICE using good old-fashioned gasoline.

Ref: http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Electric-Vehicles-No-Threat-To-Oil-Prices-Anytime-Soon.html


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(2017-07-29)
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