Warren Buffett の愛用する「バブルの判断指標」が 2007年当時のそれを超え、2000年当時のそれに接近

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Bubble Watch: We've Passed 2007 and Are Closing In on 2000


Buffett’s favorite metric for measuring the pricey-ness of stocks is the Stock Market Capitalization to Gross National Product ratio. This was one of the key metrics Buffett cited when he arguing why the Tech Craze in the late ‘90s was a mania to avoid.

Below is this metric running back to the early ‘90s. As you can see, today this ratio is above its 2007 peak: a period that is widely known to have been a massive bubble.


20170609_chart.jpg



Indeed, the last time the ratio was this high was in the fourth quarter of 1998… right before stocks went completely parabolic in the single largest stock market bubble of all time.

Put simply: the only other time stocks have been more expensive based on Buffett’s favorite valuation metric was during the single largest stock market bubble of all time: a period that everyone now acknowledges was utter insanity.

Ref: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-08/bubble-watch-weve-passed-2007-and-are-closing-2000



(2017-06-09)
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