Tony Seba:産油国や石油業界は 10年後には破局的状況に直面しているだろう

はじめに


・…という主張を紹介する。

引用



Fortunately Tony Seba, the author, comes from the real world, having spent a couple decades successfully building, running, and managing businesses. As far as I can tell, he's got a lot of practical knowledge and understands the real world:

"Oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, droppingto 70 million barrels per day by 2030. That represents a drop of 30 million barrels in real terms and 40 million barrels below the Energy Information Administration’s current “business as usual” case.

This will have a catastrophic effect on the oil industry through price collapse(an equilibrium cost of $25.4 per barrel), disproportionately impacting different companies, countries, oil elds and infrastructure depending on their exposure to high-cost oil."


How do you spell catastrophic?

The impact of the collapse of oil prices throughout the oil industry value chain will be felt as soon as 2021.

In the U.S., an estimated 65% of shale oil and tight oil ? which under a “business as usual” scenario could make up over 70% of the U.S. supply in 2030 ? would no longer be commercially viable.

Approximately 70% of the potential 2030 production of Bakken shale oil would be stranded under a 70 million barrels per day demand assumption.

Infrastructure such as the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines would be stranded, as well.

Other areas facing volume collapse include offshore sites in the United Kingdom, Norway and Nigeria; Venezuelan heavy-crude elds; and the Canadian tar sands.

Conventional energy and transportation industries will suffer substantial job loss. Policies will be needed to mitigate these adverse effects.


Ref: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-18/end-oil-within-10-years


コメント


・ソース記事の中で Kurugman に言及した下の箇所が…w

Let me say for the record that I'm often skeptical of published reports by academia. Too often academics live in a world where the number of letters behind their name is inversely correlated with real world experience, leading to all sorts of silly and often dangerous theories. Just look at Krugman... I rest my case.


(2017-05-19)
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