Doug Casey:EU の崩壊は間近、市場暴落はチャンス

抜粋(デタラメ)


・EU が崩壊し、市場が暴落した時がチャンス。株も格安となる。その時に備えて無駄玉を費やすな "hold fire"(カネを大事に取っておけ)。


Nick Giambruno: If you position yourself on the right side of this thing, do you think you can profit from the collapse of the EU?

Doug Casey: Yes. Once the EU falls apart, there are going to be huge investment opportunities. People forget how cheap markets can become. I remember in the mid-1980s, there were three markets in the world in particular I was very interested in: Hong Kong, Belgium, and Spain. All three of those markets had similar characteristics. You could buy stocks in those markets for about half of book value, about three or four times earnings, and average dividend yields of their indices were 12?15%?individual stocks were sometimes much more?and of course since then, those dividends have gone way up. The stock prices have soared.

So I expect that that's going to happen in the future. In one, several, many, or most of the world’s approximately 40 investable markets. Right now, however, we're involved in a worldwide bubble in equities. It can go the opposite direction. People forget how cheap stocks can get.

I think we're headed into very bad times. Chances are excellent you're going to see tremendous bargains. People are chasing after stocks right now with 1% dividend yields and 30 times earnings, and they want to buy them. At some point in the future these stocks are going to be selling for three times earnings and they’re going to be yielding 5, maybe 10% in dividends. But at that point most people will be afraid to buy them. In fact, they won't even want to know they exist at that point.

I’m not a believer in market timing. But, that said, I think it makes sense to hold fire when the market is anomalously high.

Ref: http://www.internationalman.com/articles/doug-casey-on-quitaly-and-the-collapse-of-the-eu


(2017-04-21)
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