James Rickards : Trump の対中国政策は世界不況を招く
And Trump’s leverage (the “art of the deal”) including North Korea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea involves matters of existential importance to the Chinese where there is no room for compromise.
The result is likely to be confrontation rather than cooperation. This outcome involves costs for both sides. U.S. consumers may pay more for Chinese goods. China’s factories may slow down as a result of higher costs. Some U.S. manufacturing jobs may be gained, but job losses in other sectors (entertainment, technology, pharmaceuticals, aircraft) may offset those gains.
The greatest danger may be a maxi-devaluation of the Chinese yuan. Once the Chinese realize that they will not be rewarded by the U.S. for trying to prop up their currency, they may just let it crash to reap the benefits of even cheaper export prices to offset the U.S. tariffs.
We’ve seen this movie before. It happened in the 1930s. It was called The Great Depression.
・Trump の対中国政策を担う政権幹部：Robert Lighthizer, Dan DiMicco, Peter Navarro
As Trump settles into office, he’s backing up his words with actions. His team is now packed with seasoned officials and advisors who have been vocal critics of China’s trade policies for decades. The new U.S. Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, has a record of imposing tariffs on unfair trading partners going back to the Reagan administration in the 1980s. Trump’s transition advisor on trade, Dan DiMicco, is the former CEO of Nucor steel and has been on the receiving end of China’s steel dumping.
Another senior Trump advisor, Peter Navarro, is an academic and outspoken critic of China. Navarro wrote the book “Death by China,” and his work is a roadmap for the kinds of policies Trump will pursue.