Doug Casey :Sell all your bonds (+追加)

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・(2016-12-26 追加)同様の趣旨の記事を追加。

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Bonds?With bonds, we’re at the peak of the biggest financial bubble in world history. This is a very big deal.

Interest rates move in very long cycles. They went up from the mid-1940s to the early ’80s, when long-term government bonds peaked at close to 16%, and T-Bills at over 16%. I thought they hit bottom years ago, but the cycle overshot.

My guess is that they’re headed up in earnest now. And Trump, as someone who understands business (even though he doesn’t understand economics), will likely (I think…) do what he can to send them higher. Why? He understands the country needs to save, to rebuild capital. And higher rates will encourage saving and discourage debt.

The risk is that, with all the debt that’s been put on in the last decade, debtors will be hard-pressed to service it. That includes the USG with $20 trillion of on-balance-sheet debt, and a lot more in the way of off-balance-sheet debt, guarantees, and contingent liabilities. Much of it will be activated if higher rates cause a lot of defaults.

What should you do? Sell all your bonds.

ソース: http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/doug-casey-sell-all-your-bonds


(2016-12-16)



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・Doug Casey が同様の趣旨の発言をしているので追加しておく。

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Interest rates are going to go up… Low interest rates and negative interest rates are actually destructive of capital and civilization because they discourage people from saving… It doesn’t matter what these stupid governments do… interest rates are headed up… and I think they’re headed way up for a long time at this point… so if you own bonds, sell them.

ソース: https://dailyreckoning.com/time-to-sell-everything/


(2016-12-26)
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