James Rickards : ドル高と「シェール・オイル業界、Gold 価格」への影響

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Let’s go back to that $60 trillion of dollar-denominated debt that’s come into being since 2009. As Jim’s pointed out for the last two years, about $9 trillion of that total was issued by companies in emerging markets; those companies need a weak dollar to keep the cost of servicing that debt from spiraling out of control. But the dollar’s been rising relentlessly since mid-2014.

Also on shaky ground is $5 trillion in debt issued by U.S. energy producers. It was bad enough most of that debt was issued on the assumption of $80-plus oil prices into perpetuity. (They’re $51.45 this morning.) But this is worse: “A strong dollar implies lower oil prices,” Jim reminds us, “despite OPEC’s machinations.”




Reminder: A strong dollar is the only reason gold is so weak right now. The bid is down to $1,161 this morning, retesting a 10-month low.

...

“In the short run (one?three months) the strong dollar, weak gold story may continue,” Jim allows.

“Beyond that, the strong dollar will strangle the U.S. economy with imported deflation and weaker exports.” Oh, and it’ll worsen the great dollar shortage and threaten to detonate a large portion of that $60 trillion in dollar-denominated debt we mentioned.

Then the Fed will have to reverse course. Jim figures by next spring. Gold holders, keep the faith. “Gold is in the doldrums now, but it is poised for a strong comeback when central bankers confront the unsustainable reality of higher real rates on dollar debt.”


ソース:https://dailyreckoning.com/emerging-dearth-dollars/

(2016-12-12)
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