James Rickards : IMF が人民元を SDR に組み込むのを急ぐ理由は…

はじめに:

・IMF が人民元を SDR に組み込むことを批判する Blog 記事をあちこちで見かける。一見すると、それらの批判は至極もっともに見える。だが、実際はそんな単純な話ではない…ということを James Rickards が述べているので紹介する。

・これが、世界経済に関する「本物の玄人」の読み方…ということなのか、あるいは IMF (とJames Rickards )の中国過大評価に過ぎないのか。比率でいえば 7:3 くらい?



抜粋:
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Why the political urgency to include the yuan in the special drawing rights (SDR) if China does not meet the usual requirements? The answer is that a new global financial panic comes closer by the day.

These panics happen every five?eight years almost like clockwork. Look at the financial panics in Mexico (1994), Russia/LTCM (1998), Lehman/AIG (2008) and you get the idea. Another panic in 2018, if not sooner, is a near certainty.

The next panic will be bigger than the central banks’ ability to put out the fire. The only source of bailout cash will be the SDR. But a massive issuance of SDRs will require cooperation by China.

This is not because of International Monetary Fund (IMF) voting (China’s vote is not that large). It’s because SDRs are useful only if they can be swapped for other reserve currencies to prop up banks and liquidate panicked sellers of stocks. (The IMF runs a secret trading desk where these SDR swaps are conducted.)

When your neighbors are in full panic mode, they won’t want SDRs from Citibank; they’ll want dollars. But who will swap dollars for the SDRs printed by the IMF?

The answer is China. The PBOC and SAFE would love to dump dollar assets in exchange for SDRs. But there’s a catch. China will only engage in SDR/Dollar swaps if the yuan is included in the SDR. China does not want to pay club dues unless it’s a member of the club.

The rush to include China in the SDR should be seen as global monetary elites getting their ducks in a row before the next panic comes to destroy your portfolio.
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ソース:http://dailyreckoning.com/china-world-money-machine/


(2016-09-01)
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