Arthur Berman : 原油価格暴落の理由と今後の予想



・記事は Arthur Berman (エネルギー分野の専門家:下の写真)にインタビューしたもの。




  ・去年 11月の OPEC 総会の前にサウジがロシアに減産を呼びかけたが、ロシアは応じようとしなかった。そこでサウジは「よかろう。半年後には気が変わっているだろうよ」と言い返した。


  ・今年 6月の OPEC 総会までにはロシアの気も変わって減産に協力するはず。つまりそれ以後は原油価格は上昇するだろう。
OP: The Current Oil Situation - What is your assessment?

Arthur Berman: The current situation with oil price is really very simple. Demand is down because of a high price for too long. Supply is up because of U.S. shale oil and the return of Libya’s production. Decreased demand and increased supply equals low price.

As far as Saudi Arabia and its motives, that is very simple also. The Saudis are good at money and arithmetic. Faced with the painful choice of losing money maintaining current production at $60/barrel or taking 2 million barrels per day off the market and losing much more money?it’s an easy choice: take the path that is less painful. If there are secondary reasons like hurting U.S. tight oil producers or hurting Iran and Russia, that’s great, but it’s really just about the money.

Saudi Arabia met with Russia before the November OPEC meeting and proposed that if Russia cut production, Saudi Arabia would also cut and get Kuwait and the Emirates at least to cut with it. Russia said, “No,” so Saudi Arabia said, “Fine, maybe you will change your mind in six months.” I think that Russia and maybe Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria and Angola will change their minds by the next OPEC meeting in June.

・アメリカのシェール・オイル業界の実情として、最大規模の Bakken 油田でさえ 93ドルでも採算が取れない。株情報屋などがアメリカのシェール・オイルは 60ドルでも大丈夫などと提灯記事を書きまくっているが嘘っぱち。
If you somehow don’t believe or understand EURs and 10-Qs, just get on Google Finance and look at third quarter financial data for the companies that say they are doing fine at low oil prices.

Continental Resources is the biggest player in the Bakken. Their free cash flow - cash from operating activities minus capital expenditures - was -$1.1 billion in the third- quarter of 2014. That means that they spent more than $1 billion more than they made. Their debt was 120% of equity. That means that if they sold everything they own, they couldn’t pay off all their debt. That was at $93 oil prices.

・シェール・オイルの油田開発には時間遅れがあり、需給バランスに応じてすぐには増産、減産ができない。そのため 2015年の採算量は価格暴落にも関わらず増える。業者が強気だから増えるわけではなく、時間遅れがあるため。


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