FC2ブログ

Ray Dalio : 今の「カネの刷りまくり」の後に、革命か戦争が起きる。

前置


・Ray Dalio の主張。

・Ray Dalio については下の過去記事で取り上げた。

  Ray Dalio が四半世紀をかけて編み出した「正しい経営判断を下す合理的な方法」 (2019-11-17)

  世界最大のヘッジファンドが紙幣増刷を警告:2013年までに世界経済の崩壊を招く (2011-07-19)
ドル破綻

一部引用



Just as there is a human life cycle that typically lasts about 80 years (give or take) and no two are exactly the same but most are similar, there is an analogous empire life cycle that has its own typical patterns. For example, for most of us, during the first phase of life we are under our parents’ guidance and learn in school until we are about 18-24, at which point we enter the second phase. In this phase we work, become parents, and take care of others who are trying to be successful. We do this until we are about 55-65, at which time we enter the third phase when we become free of obligations and eventually die. It is pretty easy to tell what phases people are in because of obvious markers, and it is sensible for them to know what stages they are in and to behave appropriately in dealing with themselves and with others based on that. The same thing is true for countries. The major phases are shown on this chart. It’s the ultra-simplified archetypical Big Cycle that I shared in the last chapter.

20200522_chart1.jpg

As the prosperity increases the wealth gap grows. Eventually the debt bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money and credit and increased internal conflict, which leads to some sort of wealth redistribution revolution that can be peaceful or violent.

Typically at that time late in the cycle the leading empire that won the last economic and geopolitical war is less powerful relative to rival powers that prospered during the prosperous period, and with the bad economic conditions and the disagreements between powers there is typically some kind of war.


20200523_chart2.jpg


That is what has repeatedly happened through time. The lines in the chart signify the relative powers of the 11 most powerful empires over the last 500 years. In the chart below you can see where the US and China are currently in their cycles. As you can see the United States is now the most powerful empire by not much, it is in relative decline, Chinese power is rapidly rising, and no other powers come close.


ref: The Big Cycles Over The Last 500 Years - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio/?trackingId=uyaU8QYITcSdAWoF%2BREnZQ%3D%3D



コメント1


・戦争の可能性に比べると、アメリカや中国で革命が起きる可能性はかなり低い。

コメント2


・上の図を見て、赤の中国が青のアメリカを追い越すのは確実だ…と思う人も多いだろう。Ray Dalio もそのそれを強く示唆しているようだ(ソース記事の続編でそれを詳しく主張するようだ)。

・この手の

  中国がアメリカを凌いで覇権国家となる

 という予想については、直後の記事で私の意見を述べる。

(2020-05-22)
関連記事

コメントの投稿

非公開コメント

プロフィール

横着者 (ご連絡はコメント欄にて)

Author:横着者 (ご連絡はコメント欄にて)

最新記事
最新コメント
最新トラックバック
月別アーカイブ
カテゴリ
検索フォーム
RSSリンクの表示
リンク
ブロとも申請フォーム

この人とブロともになる

QRコード
QR