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James Rickards : FRB の $4T 供給でも、世界中で、米ドルが枯渇している理由

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Many observers are surprised to hear about a dollar shortage. After all, didn’t the Fed print almost $4 trillion to bail out the system after 2008?

Yes, but while the Fed was printing $4 trillion, the world was creating $100 trillion in new debt.

This huge debt pyramid was fine as long as global growth was solid and dollars were flowing out of the U.S. and into emerging markets.

But that’s no longer the case, and that’s an understatement. Global growth was anemic before the crisis hit. Now it’s contracting rapidly.

If dollars are in short supply, China can’t control its currency and emerging markets can’t roll over their debts.

But again, you might say, isn’t the Fed engaged in its most massive liquidity injections ever and extending swap lines to foreign central banks to ensure they can access dollars?

Yes, but it’s not nearly enough to meet global funding needs.

Foreign nations are scrambling to acquire dollars right now. And that surging demand for dollars only drives up the value of the dollar, which puts additional strain on their ability to service debt.

When those debt holders want their money back, $4 trillion is not enough to finance $100 trillion, unless new debt replaces the old. That’s what causes a global liquidity crisis.


ref: The Great Dollar Shortage - The Daily Reckoning - https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great-dollar-shortage/

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・James Rickards は上の主張に続けて、

The trend away from the dollar was already underway before the latest crisis, led by China and Russia. Now that trend will greatly accelerate as the world seeks to eliminate, or greatly reduce, its dependence on the dollar.

That’s not just my opinion, by the way. Here’s what Eswar Prasad, former head of the IMF’s China team, says:

“The dollar’s surge will renew calls for a shift from a dollar-centric global financial system.”

It can happen much faster than you think. And the dollar’s days are more numbered now than ever.

 と予想しているが、まるで説得力がないと私は思う。それについては、直後の記事で述べる。

(2020-03-26)
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