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Simon Black : 香港ドルのドル・ペッグを過信するな。なぜなら…

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At the end of the day, Hong Kong’s pegged exchange rate needs to make sense for Hong Kong. And for China.

It’s becoming more clear that this is no longer the case.

Back in the 1980s, the US was Hong Kong’s primary trading partner. Having a dollar peg was incredibly convenient.

It was also a convenience for mainland China, because the peg gave Chinese businesses (through their Hong Kong subsidiaries) easy access to foreign markets and US dollars.

Today those things are no longer necessary.

Hong Kong is now a first-world economy that no longer requires US economic support.

Hong Kong’s primary trading partner today is China, not the US. And China has so much economic power that its businesses don’t need US dollar convertibility through Hong Kong.

The biggest issue is that maintaining the peg requires Hong Kong to mirror US interest rate policy, essentially sacrificing part of its economic sovereignty.

That’s something that definitely doesn’t make sense, for Hong Kong, OR for China? especially with a trade war looming.

It’s worth noting that HKMA’s CEO, Norman Chan, a long-time defender of the currency peg, is retiring this month.

And it remains to be seen whether his successor will share the same enthusiasm to spend hundreds of billions of dollars maintaining a peg that might not make sense anymore.

Bottom line? Hong Kong will unlikely be ‘bullied’ by speculators into dropping its currency peg.

But it’s entirely possible they may choose to willingly do so… simply because the US dollar peg doesn’t make as much sense as it did in 1983.

So if you’re holding Hong Kong dollars, please do bear this possibility in mind.

ref: Think about this if you own Hong Kong dollars | Sovereign Man - https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/think-about-this-if-you-own-hong-kong-dollars-25532/



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・タイトルの件は WSJ でも話題になっている(…が、有料会員しか全文を読めないw)。

香港の米ドルペッグ制、崩壊が懸念される訳 - WSJ - https://jp.wsj.com/articles/SB11760257564042813540604585513282459472718

(2019-09-14)

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