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Martin Armstrong:SDR がドルに取って代わる事などありえない。なぜなら…

はじめに


・次回、世界的経済危機が訪れれば、SDR がドルに取って代わるだろう…と主張するエコノミストがいるが(例:James Rickards)、Martin Armstrong がそれを完全否定してる。

・過去記事で Martin Armstrong の同様の趣旨の発言を取り上げた気がする。

一部引用



QUESTION: Hi Martin,
I am a long time reader of your blog and a big fan of the tools that you have developed for investors. Thanks for all that you do and I wanted to reach out and ask about your opinion of the thesis that ??- outlines for the IMF implementing SDRs as world money during the next downturn? This type of scenario seems to make sense considering the current balance sheets of central banks and the current lack of demand for EU debt.
Nicky


ANSWER: I was in a discussion about that back in the 1980s (see the response from the White House rejecting SDRs). That was a day before the IMF became so corrupt. That was rejected countless times. The entire problem still stems from the cross-currency borrowing by nations. Even if the emerging markets borrowed in SDRs instead of US dollars, it really would not alter the world money system nor prevent a crash at the hand of a Sovereign Debt Crisis. What it would do is simply relieve the dollar marginally. The problem would emerge on how do you manage such a system. As long as governments issue debt, then once they issue that debt in ANY currency other than their own, RISK enters the game.

Even if we switched the reserve currency from the dollar to the SDR, the ONLY way to enforce it would be to restrict currency. For example, I could issue a bond in Japanese yen for years and sell it to you in Canada without it being approved by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. China still has currency controls where its people have to ask permission to send money out of the country. The only way to enforce an EXCLUSIVE SDR reserve currency would be for all debt to be denominated in SDRs. However, then every country would still have the risk of their currency fluctuating against the SDR.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/monetary-reform/the-imfs-sdr-monetary-reform-another-crazy-idea/


(2018-07-29)
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