中国:銀行の抱える巨額不良債権が解決されそうにない理由

抜粋(デタラメ):

・今月の初めに Kyle Bass が次のように発言して衝撃を与えた。
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In China, in dollar terms their banking system is almost $35 trillion against a GDP of $10 and their banking system has grown 400% in 8 years with non-performing loans being nonexistent. So what we are going to see next is a credit cycle, and in a credit cycle you see some losses, but if China's banking system loses 10%, you are going to see them lose $3.5 trillion.
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・これに関連して中国のある銀行家が次のように告白していると。
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If I don't issue more loans, then my salary isn't enough to repay the mortgage, and car loan. It’s not difficult to issue more loans, but lets say in a years time when the loan is due, if the borrower defaults, then I wont just see a pay cut, I’ll be fired, and still be responsible for loan recovery.
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・だから、中国の銀行の抱える巨額不良債権は解決されそうにないと。結局、外貨備蓄を使い果たす前に通貨切り下げに至るだろうと。
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And that, in under 60 words, explains why China finds itself in a no way out situation, and why despite all its recurring posturing, all its promises for reform, all its bluster for deleveraging, China's ruling elite will never be able to achieve an internal devaluation, and why despite its recurring threats to crush, gut and destroy all the evil Yuan shorts, ultimately it will have no choice but to pursue an external devaluation of its economy by way of devaluing its currency presumably some time before its foreign reserves run out (which at a $185 billion a month burn rate may not last for even one year).
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ソース:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-30/chinese-banker-explains-why-there-no-way-out

(2016-01-31)
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