Harry Dent と Peter Schiff がネット経由で議論

前置


・2時間弱と長いが、最初の 45分ほどまでで十分。両者の予想とその根拠の説明が聞き所。

・もう一つの見どころは Harry Dent の用意した図。

要点


・論争の主点は現在のバブルが弾けた後に

  ・Peter Schiff :激しいインフレになる。
  ・Harry Dent  :インフレにはならずデフレのまま。

切り出し静止画


・Harry Dent の用意した図は記録する価値がある。

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動画(1:51:03)


Harry Dent Fights Peter Schiff
2020-11-27


コメント


・ネット界隈では Peter Schiff 的な予想に対する支持が多く、Harry Dent のような予想は支持されない筈。

・だが、当面は Harry Dent の予想に近い方向で現実は動くのではないか。その後は両者の予測の前提そのものがひっくり返ってもおかしくはない。というか、ひっくり返すしかない…としてリセットを試みるがリブートに失敗。そんな道筋が見える気がする。

(2020-11-28)

Harry Dent の予想: 来年 4月までに株式市場が 40%下落

抜粋(デタラメ)


・11:30 あたり。

・18:00 その後、回復には何十年も要するだろう。

・20:00 私が生きている間に日本が 1989年のような経済状態に戻ることはありえない。絶対に。

音声書写(自動生成)



i think
11:20
that we're we're about to see one more
11:23
crash
11:23
it won't be the end game but it'll be
11:25
one more crash that takes the stock
11:27
market to
11:28
new lows by april is my forecast between
11:31
now and april
11:32
another 40 crash greater than the s p
11:35
down 34 35 greater than the 20 crash for
11:38
that ever since 2018
11:40
top which was the first bubbly top we've
11:42
seen every clash take us to new lows but
11:45
every stimulus
11:46
rebound take us to new highs i think
11:48
we're going to see the high
11:50
soon and we're never going to see this
11:52
high for years
11:53
and that the next crash is where
11:55
investors lose confidence
11:57
in the fed and governments endlessly
12:00
stimulating
12:00
a dead economy and then investors
12:04
withdraw you've got to realize
12:05
here's an important fact david globally
12:08
255 trillion in debt
12:10
way more than three times gdp way more
12:13
than ever but financial assets because
12:15
the qe
12:16
is twice that over 500 trillion now
12:19
just that financial asset bubble
12:22
crashing
12:22
will take 200 trillion or more out of
12:25
the global economy
12:26
three times gdp and that is enough to
12:29
cause a depression
12:30
without anything else is harry are you
12:32
short right now then
12:34
yeah well now i'm getting ready to get
12:36
short i'm looking at early december
12:38
is the next i think the markets are
12:40
going higher here i think they got
12:42
one more rally in them at a minimum i
12:45
think that could i'm looking at a target
12:47
of about 37
12:48
50 to 3 800 on the s p uh maybe thirty
12:52
you know one thirty two thousand in the
12:54
dow and then i think this thing
12:55
may be over and again you have to ask
12:58
yourself are you gonna go for that last
12:59
five percent
13:00
when the next crash within a matter of



動画(21:49)


Harry Dent: Stocks to crash 40% by April and won't rebound for decades, here's why (Pt. 1/2)
2020-11-26


(2020-11-27)

Robert Kiyosaki : 来年には無人トラックが登場。いずれ数百万人の運転者が失業。

前置


・Robert Kiyosaki が「未曾有の経済危機が間近だ」と煽りまくっている。視聴者に恐怖を感じさせて誘導する説得技術の見本。

・とはいえ、煽り成分を除去しても面白い内容であることは確か。

抜粋(デタラメ)


・先日、トラック製造会社が予告。

自動生成



19:52
a couple of days ago an american
19:54
trucking company
19:55
truck builder they announced they'll
19:57
have a driverless truck
19:59
on the road in america in 2021.
20:02
now a driverless truck what does that
20:04
mean
20:06
that means there's three million truck
20:08
drivers in the future who are out of
20:10
work
20:11
we don't need drivers the lesson is
20:14
technology
20:16
replaces human beings and as a pilot
20:20
you know i went back to my old squadron
20:22
in florida
20:23
they don't need pilots in the airplanes
20:25
anymore either
20:27
you know they're drones the drones can
20:28
fly by themselves
20:30
so look at who's getting fired today are
20:33
airline pilots
20:35
airline buffets dumping airlines all
20:37
these pilots they're losing their jobs
20:40
and what happens is little drones fly up
20:42
ahead over there you don't need a pilot
20:44
for them
20:45
and our in our silly silly school system
20:49
still tells you to go to school get your
20:52
phd
20:53
and look for a job well jobs are
20:56
disappearing
20:58
so that's the future that's the crisis
21:00
you know it doesn't have anything to do
21:02
with covid



動画(44:34)


One of Robert Kiyosaki's Strongest Future Predictions
2020-10-20


(2020-10-28)

Robert Kiyosaki : Warren Buffett が銀行株を全量売却した理由

前置


・Robert Kiyosaki が「未曾有の経済危機が間近だ」と煽りまくっている。視聴者に恐怖を感じさせて誘導する説得技術の見本。

・とはいえ、煽り成分を除去しても面白い内容であることは確か。

抜粋(デタラメ)


・Warren Buffett が銀行株と航空会社株を全量売却した理由は何か?

  ・それは銀行が潰れ、世界規模で最悪の経済危機が迫っているからだ。"biggest financial crisis most likely a global depression"

  ・さらに仮想通貨によって銀行が不要になるからだ。

自動生成



the biggest news of
15:31
all
15:33
was um just recently in the last few
15:36
weeks
15:37
it was disclosed that warren buffett has
15:40
dumped all of his banking stocks he's
15:42
dumped jp morgan
15:43
goldman sachs visa he's dumping all of
15:46
his banking stocks
15:47
and he's also dumping all of his airline
15:50
stocks
15:51




16:27
why would buffett dump banking stocks






why is he dumping his bank stocks
16:46
and why is he dumping airline stocks
16:50
what does he see on the horizon so again
16:53
this
16:53
investment crisis is a very important
16:55
crisis because myself harry dent
16:58
and the other speakers will be telling
16:59
you about the crisis
17:01
there is no doubt this crisis is coming
17:07
the only question is what are you going
17:08
to do about it so i'm going to tell you
17:10
what i'm doing about it i'm making more
17:12
money than ever before
17:14
but i was prepared for it harry's going
17:16
to make money ever before
17:18
because he's prepared for it so if
17:20
buffett is going to dump the banking
17:22
stocks does that mean
17:24
we're going to have a banking collapse
17:27
that's the question i think we're
17:29
heading into a depression and it'll be a
17:32
long depression i think we're back in
17:34
1928 right now
17:37
and it doesn't make a difference if
17:39
president trump gets reelected or biden
17:41
gets elected
17:42
because the problem is bigger than the
17:45
office







21:11
so why would buffett be dumping banking
21:14
shares
21:16
you know why it's because when they go
21:19
to cryptocurrency
21:21
when the us dollar goes cyber we don't
21:24
need
21:24
banks anymore





we're about to hit the
25:47
biggest financial crisis
25:50
most likely a global depression japan
25:53
is in horrible financial state so is
25:56
china
25:56
so is europe italy is gone
26:00
you know england's in syria's trouble
26:04




動画(44:34)


One of Robert Kiyosaki's Strongest Future Predictions
2020-10-20


(2020-10-28)

James Rickards : 政府が過大債務対策として熱望するインフレを即座に実現する方法

前置


・これについては過去記事で取り上げたような気もする。

・具体的な方法についてはソースへ。

コメント


・Richards は次のふたつの異なった事柄を混同させているのではないか。ふたつとは
  ・(Gold の価格改定による)債務の穴埋め
  ・緩やかなインフレによる時間をかけた債務解消

・なぜなら…




一部引用



There’s only one solution left, inflation.

Now, the Fed printed trillions over the past several years, and trillions more over the past several months. But we’ve barely had any inflation at all.

Most of the new money was given by the Fed to the banks, who turned around and parked it on deposit at the Fed to gain interest. The money never made it out into the economy, where it would produce inflation.

The bottom line is that not even money printing has worked to get inflation moving.

Is there anything left in the bag of tricks?

There is actually. The Fed could actually cause inflation in about 15 minutes if it used it. How?

...

ref: The Golden Solution to America’s Debt Crisis - The Daily Reckoning - https://dailyreckoning.com/the-golden-solution-to-americas-debt-crisis/


(2020-10-27)
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