Martin Armstrong : イギリスのスピード違反の反則金制度が完全にイカれている


・イギリスではスピード違反の反則金の金額は、違反者の週給の 1.75倍と定められている。仮に年収 25億円の CEO なら、8400万円の反則金となる。


The Europeans are simply totally insane. They fine you in proportion to what you can pay. In Britain, they are setting this at 175% of the weekly wage. So if you were a CEO earning $25 million a year, your fine will be $841,346.



Doug Casey:EU の崩壊は間近、市場暴落はチャンス


・EU が崩壊し、市場が暴落した時がチャンス。株も格安となる。その時に備えて無駄玉を費やすな "hold fire"(カネを大事に取っておけ)。

Nick Giambruno: If you position yourself on the right side of this thing, do you think you can profit from the collapse of the EU?

Doug Casey: Yes. Once the EU falls apart, there are going to be huge investment opportunities. People forget how cheap markets can become. I remember in the mid-1980s, there were three markets in the world in particular I was very interested in: Hong Kong, Belgium, and Spain. All three of those markets had similar characteristics. You could buy stocks in those markets for about half of book value, about three or four times earnings, and average dividend yields of their indices were 12?15%?individual stocks were sometimes much more?and of course since then, those dividends have gone way up. The stock prices have soared.

So I expect that that's going to happen in the future. In one, several, many, or most of the world’s approximately 40 investable markets. Right now, however, we're involved in a worldwide bubble in equities. It can go the opposite direction. People forget how cheap stocks can get.

I think we're headed into very bad times. Chances are excellent you're going to see tremendous bargains. People are chasing after stocks right now with 1% dividend yields and 30 times earnings, and they want to buy them. At some point in the future these stocks are going to be selling for three times earnings and they’re going to be yielding 5, maybe 10% in dividends. But at that point most people will be afraid to buy them. In fact, they won't even want to know they exist at that point.

I’m not a believer in market timing. But, that said, I think it makes sense to hold fire when the market is anomalously high.



James Rickards:この夏から本格的な景気後退が始まるだろう


“We’re going to be in the next recession probably by summer, if not a financial panic. You can’t forecast it specifically. Here’s what we can know, it’s definitely coming and will be the biggest in history. Business cycles are different than panics. We’re headed into a cyclical recession right now. We’ve been in a depression since 2007. That’s what 2% growth is - when your potential is 3-3.5%, that indicates depressed growth at an output gap. You can have technical recessions while in a depression as we saw in the 1930’s. However, the entire period from 1929-1930 was just one big depression. The question is, when does the panic come? It could be any day.”



James Rickards:Trump の中国との通貨戦争は今後 10~15年は続く


When asked about President Trump’s commentary on China not being a currency manipulator and whether the U.S and China currency war may be over Rickards’ indicated, “It is not over. I would say we’ve been in one big currency war since 2010… This is just one long currency war. They can last for 10 or 15 years. At times it will get more intense.”

“What Trump is doing is all part of The Art of the Deal. They’ve made it clear that they’re not going to label China a currency manipulator. That was a bargaining chip for Trump to get help [from China] on North Korea.



James Rickards:Trump は FRB を支配できるだろう


・James Rickards が従来の予想(過去記事で紹介済み:Trump の経済政策は Yellen に阻まれるだろう…という趣旨)を修正してタイトルのような発言をしているので記録しておく。


When asked about Trump’s leverage for the Federal Reserve, Rickards indicated, “Right now Trump does not want the Federal Reserve to raise rates because it would slow the economy. The Fed is going to raise rates because they have bad models… They have bad models and can’t see the recession coming. Trump is trying to understand what leverage he has on Janet Yellen - and that is her job position. He has indicated that he may very well keep Yellen if she does not raise rates. Then, along comes the Godfather - Robert Rubin, who is the most powerful figure in finance that is behind the scenes. He came out yesterday with an Op-Ed that said “don’t play politics with the Fed.” There is a struggle going on with the Fed. Trump will have five open seats at the Fed over the next year. Trump essentially owns the Fed.”



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