Chris Dixon:Bitcoin に注目すべき理由

はじめに


・3年前の動画だが、Bitcoin の熱烈な支持者の分かりやすい動画を紹介する。当時の仮想通貨関連の開発者、起業家の熱気が伝わってくるようだ。

・現在までのところ、Chris Dixon の主張と予想はかなり当たっている。

インタビュー動画(4:03)


・Entrepreneur & Investor Chris Dixon Explains Why You Should Give a Damn About Bitcoin-WIRED BizCon


(2017-10-22)

「民間主導の仮想通貨」と「政府が管理・支配する仮想通貨」の間で戦いが起きるだろう

はじめに


・最近になって、ロシアと中国が独自に「政府が管理・支配する仮想通貨」を発行する動きが活発化している。さらに IMF までもその可能性があると。

一部引用



The Next Generation Of Currency Wars: Private Vs State-backed Crypto


Recently Russia announced that it will be unleashing a CryptoRuble, just a week after Vladimir Putin strongly criticized Bitcoin and other private cryptocurrencies.



Last July the People’s Bank of China became the first central bank to announce it had developed a crypto-prototype that it plans to offer alongside the traditional renminbi.

That the first forays into state-backed cryptocurrency comes from two countries with a history of restricting a free and open internet is not surprising. While Bitcoin originated as a way to opt out of government control of money supply, increasingly governments see the underlying technology as a way to increase their control of the economy.


Not to be left behind, the IMF - who some analysts, such as Jim Rickards, believe is prepared to step up to replace the US dollar as the next global reserve currency - recently opened the door to issuing their own cryptocurrency in the future.

Ref: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-20/*TESLA%20AMENDMENTS%20BOOSTED%20COMMITMENTS%20TO%20$1.1B%20FROM%20$600M


(2017-10-21)

大富豪たちの Bitcoin を厳重保管するスイスの秘密格納庫

はじめに


・格納場所が凄い。冷戦時代に、花崗岩の山をくり抜いて作られた地下基地を転用した格納庫。

Server racks for banks, and any client who needs secure data processing, fill a cavity dug over 320 meters deep in the granite mountain. The Swiss military built the facility in 1947, and it served as the army’s secret headquarters during the Cold War, Agence-France Presse has reported. Inside, walls covered with detailed maps and ancient radio electronics serve as vestiges of its military past.


冒頭部分引用



20171019_sb1.jpg

20171019_sb2.jpg


I’m being driven along the eastern shore of Lake Lucerne when my guide points out our destination. “The bunker is in one of those mountains,” says Maxim Kon, gesturing at a fog shrouded peak on the opposite shore as he pilots his BMW convertible.
Kon is taking me to see one of the vaults where Xapo, the company he works for, stores its customers’ bitcoins. It’s no ordinary vault: I’ve been told it’s inside a decommissioned Swiss military bunker dug into a granite mountain. Its precise location is secret, and access is limited by security measures that would put a Bond villain to shame.
Kon won’t tell me how much bitcoin is stored in the vault, but he says he sometimes takes customers with “millions” of dollars worth of the cryptocurrency stored with Xapo to tour the vault. It’s odd to think of a virtual currency needing physical storage, but just like your most precious photos, even a cryptocurrency needs some kind of material container. Xapo’s founder is the Argentinian entrepreneur Wences Casares, the “patient zero” of bitcoin among Silicon Valley’s elite. It was Casares who gave tech luminaries like Bill Gates and Reid Hoffman their first bitcoins.
A bitcoin vault doesn’t store actual bitcoin units. Technically, what’s being stored are private, cryptographic keys. These keys form a pair with particular, public-facing, keys and provide access to the balance of coins stored on the bitcoin network. Gaining unauthorized access to someone’s private keys is akin to making off with a gold bar.


Ref: https://qz.com/1103310/photos-the-secret-swiss-mountain-bunker-where-millionaires-stash-their-bitcoins/


(2017-10-19)

利益よりもキャッシュ・フローを見よ。

はじめに


・Simon Black のタイトルの趣旨の記事を紹介する。

抜粋(デタラメ)


・利益は会計上の様々な約束事やテクニックで操作できるが、キャッシュ・フローは操作困難。よってその企業の実態は利益よりもキャッシュ・フローに注目すべき。

・Netflix は利益は上げているが、キャッシュ・フローは連続してマイナス。しかもマイナス幅が増大している。これはマズイ状況。

・なのに投資家は Netflix の利益のニュースだけを視て単純に反応するから、株価が上がっている。

一部引用



CASH FLOW is much more accurate.

Specifically, OPERATING CASH FLOW tells us how much money a company makes from its business.

It strips out all the silly rules and focuses purely on how much cash a business generates from its operations.

Then there’s FREE CASH FLOW, which is the amount of money left over for investors AFTER a company makes all of the necessary investments it requires for future growth.

Cash flow is what counts. If a company has negative cash flow, it will eventually go under.




Quarter after quarter, Netflix reports a profit.

Just yesterday afternoon the company had its quarterly earnings call, posting a profit of $553 million. Not bad.

Yet when anyone dives just a little bit deeper into the numbers, Netflix’s cash flow is absolutely gruesome.

The company’s operating cash flow is negative. In other words, after stripping out all the unrealistic accounting nonsense, Netflix’s core business LOSES MONEY.

In fact Netflix’s operating cash flow has been negative FOR YEARS. And the amount of money its losing is increasing.

Netflix’s business has lost $1.3 billion so far through the first nine months of 2017. That’s 52% worse than the $916 million operating cash flow deficit they suffered in the first nine months of 2016, and nearly three times worse than the $504 million operating cash flow deficit during the first nine months of 2015.


Ref: https://www.sovereignman.com/investing/heres-how-people-get-fooled-into-buying-bankrupt-companies-22508/

(2017-10-18)

James Rickards:中国の大幅な元の切り下げに備えよ

抜粋(デタラメ)


・中国は「国際金融のトリレンマ」(Impossible trinity)の制約によって、元の切り下げ政策をとるだろう。そうなれば過去の事例からわかるように、米株価は大幅下落するだろう…というような話。

一部引用



China escaped the impossible trinity again in 2017 using a hat trick of partially closing the capital account, raising interest rates, and allowing the yuan to appreciate against the dollar thereby breaking the exchange rate peg.

The problem for China is that these solutions are all non-sustainable.


China cannot keep the capital account closed without damaging badly needed capital inflows. Who will invest in China if you can’t get your money out?

China also cannot maintain high interest rates because the interest costs will bankrupt insolvent state owned enterprises and lead to an increase in unemployment, which is socially destabilizing.

China cannot maintain a strong yuan because that damages exports, hurts export-related jobs, and causes deflation to be imported through lower import prices. An artificially inflated currency also drains the foreign exchange reserves needed to maintain the peg.


Since the impossible trinity really is impossible in the long-run, and since China’s current solutions are non-sustainable, what can China do to solve its policy trilemma?

The most obvious course, and the one likely to be implemented, is a maxi-devaluation of the yuan to around the 7.95 level or lower.

This would stop capital outflows because those outflows are driven by devaluation fears. Once the devaluation happens, there is no longer any urgency about getting money out of China. In fact, new money should start to flow in to take advantage of much lower local currency prices.

There are early signs that this policy of devaluation is already being put into place. The yuan has dropped sharply in the past month from 6.45 to 6.62. This resembles the stealth devaluation of late 2015, but is somewhat more aggressive.

The geopolitical situation is also ripe for a Chinese devaluation policy. Once the National Party Congress is over in late October, President Xi will have secured his political ambitions and will no longer find it necessary to avoid rocking the boat.


Ref: https://dailyreckoning.com/prepare-chinese-maxi-devaluation/


(2017-10-14)
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