FC2ブログ

James Rickards : 中国は張子の虎だ。なぜなら…

はじめに


・マス・メディア、特に日本の偏った(or 腐った)メディアに洗脳されているとタイトルの件は怪訝に思えるかも知れないが、最近、James Rickards がかなり常識的な解説記事を up している。

・現在進行形の香港問題を含め、中国情勢に興味があれば、ソース記事は短いので目を通すことを勧める。

結論部分引用



International business is moving quickly to move supply chains from China to Vietnam and elsewhere in South Asia. Once those supply chains move, they will not come back to China for at least ten years if ever. These are permanent losses for the Chinese economy.

Of course, lurking behind all of this is the coming debt crisis in China. About 25% of China’s reported growth the past ten years has come from wasted infrastructure investment (think “ghost cities”) funded with unpayable debt. China’s economy is a Ponzi scheme like the Madoff Plan and that debt pyramid is set to collapse.

This cascade of negative news is taking its toll on Chinese stocks. This weakness began in late June 2019 when the summit meeting between U.S. President Trump and President Xi of China at the G20 Leaders meeting in Osaka, Japan failed to produce substantive progress on trade disputes.

Since then, the trade wars have gone from bad to worse and China’s economy has suffered accordingly. My expectation is that a trade war resolution in nowhere in sight and the trade war issues have been subsumed into a larger list of issues involving military and national security policy.

The new “Cold War” is here. Get used to it.

ref: China: Paper Tiger - The Daily Reckoning - https://dailyreckoning.com/china-paper-tiger/


コメント


・ソースの最後の文句、"Get used to it." は意味深長。

・マス・メディアでは、未だに米中貿易戦争でどちらが優勢か…なんてレベルの話をしているが、オトボケなのかそれとも本当に無能なのかが気になるところ。

・米中戦争の明白な結末がでるまであと 10-15年ほどはかかるだろうが、勝敗は既に見えており、その結果は動かない。その明白な結末を見据えて将来の利益を最大にするには今からどの駒をどう動かすべきか、何を犠牲に仕立て上げるべきか(Remember pearl harbor)…それが頭の良い連中の課題となっている筈。

(2019-08-16)

James Rickards : 最近の元安が Bitcoin の上昇を引き起こした。

はじめに


・…という指摘を記録しておく。

一部引用



But, this currency war counterattack will not be successful because it will incite more capital outflows from China. The Chinese lost $1 trillion of hard currency reserves during the last round of capital flight (2014-2016) and will lose more now, despite tighter capital controls. The spike of bitcoin to $11,000 following the China devaluation is a symptom of Chinese people using bitcoin to avoid capital controls and get their money out of China.

ref: China: Paper Tiger - The Daily Reckoning - https://dailyreckoning.com/china-paper-tiger/


コメント


・大勢の中国人が Bitcoin を資産防衛の拠り所にしているとすれば、中国政府は資金の逃げ口を塞ぐためにいずれ、Bitcoin の規制強化や違法化を行う筈。そうなれば、Bitcoin は再び、暴落するだろうが、その直前までは高値が続くような気がする。

(2019-08-16)

James Rickards : 中国は元安誘導しているのではない。元高支持を止めただけ。

はじめに


・James Rickards の「中国が張子の虎である理由」"Why China’s a Paper Tiger" と題した記事からタイトルの件に絞る。

一部引用



The Chinese yuan is softly pegged to the dollar. To maintain the soft peg, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) sells dollars and buys yuan.

That props up the yuan. It’s basic supply and demand economics.

One of the primary reasons China tries to strengthen the yuan is to prevent capital flight out of the country. If the yuan depreciates too rapidly, massive amounts of Chinese money would look to flee abroad where it can get much higher returns.

After all, would you want to hold a rapidly deteriorating asset that constantly loses value? Or if you were a Chinese investor, would you try to convert your money into a currency that holds its value?

That’s the question Chinese investors have been facing.

A capital drain could devastate the Chinese economy, which badly needs the capital to remain in China to support its massive Ponzi schemes, ghost cities and overinvestment.

That’s why the PBoC has been trying to support the yuan, even though a cheaper yuan helps Chinese exports.

That’s the conundrum China faces. It wants a cheap yuan ? but not too cheap.

ref: Why China's a Paper Tiger - The Daily Reckoning - https://dailyreckoning.com/why-chinas-a-paper-tiger/


(2019-08-16)

Raul Ilargi : 中国が引きこもりになるかも…という説

一部引用



It wouldn’t be the first time for me to say I can see China retreat into itself, into its own borders and culture and market (1.3 billion people!). If the Communist Party wants to remain in power, and there’s no doubt it does, this may be only possible choice going forward. If growth has indeed left the miracle -as many observers think-, it can implode in very rapid succession. And even if growth hasn’t yet evaporated, it may well very soon. Without the growth, there is no miracle anymore.

And if China can no longer grow its exports, its domestic growth will also become a thing of the past. Domestic consumption can only grow as long as exports do too. Seen from that angle, the problems with trade and the currency look downright ominous. If you need dollars that badly, and you notice that you’re already getting fewer of them, not more, you’re in trouble.

ref: https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2019/08/will-china-retreat-into-itself/


コメント


・甘い。すんなりと「引きこもり」になれるなんてありえない。中国が引きこもるとすれば、アメリカにボロ負けした後に、まだ中国共産党に余力と幸運が残っていれば…の話だろう。

(2019-08-06)

ピアノの生産台数の推移

はじめに


・これほど急峻な減少だったとは…

一部引用




20190611_piano.jpg



ref: 日本におけるピアノ所有の社会的意味の変容に関する分析
http://www.l.u-tokyo.ac.jp/2015SSM-PJ/04_05.pdf


(2019-06-11)
プロフィール

横着者 (ご連絡はコメント欄にて)

Author:横着者 (ご連絡はコメント欄にて)

最新記事
最新コメント
最新トラックバック
月別アーカイブ
カテゴリ
検索フォーム
RSSリンクの表示
リンク
ブロとも申請フォーム

この人とブロともになる

QRコード
QR