Martin Armstrong : Trump の「中国は為替操作国だ」という批判は間違っている。


The dollar has been rallying against the yuan since the March low here in 2018. Clearly, the dollar is going to rise further for a trade war will hurt China more so than the USA. While we see critical turning points in January and March in 2019 followed by May, we must keep in mind that this pattern of a dollar rally is impacting the entire world. Trump FAILS to understand Capital Flows and his accusations against China is manipulating its currency to beat the USA in trade is NOT justified. Our models are showing the capital flight from China but also from Europe overall which contributed to the US share market rally into October basis the Dow Jones Industrials, which foreign capital buys looking always for the trophies.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/currency-war-the-misguided-understanding-of-the-forex-markets/


・Martin Armstrong のこの意見は、Paul Krugman の見解(下)の真逆になっている。


ref: https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%82%BA%E6%9B%BF%E6%93%8D%E4%BD%9C%E5%9B%BD


Martin Armstrong : 米社会の亀裂は既に修復不能→米の衰退→中国が 2032年に優位に立つ。


・…という Martin Armstrong の予測を記録しておく。

・「米社会の亀裂」とは保守層とリベラル層の間の激しい対立(この 8日に決着した最高裁判事に関する対立がその典型例)を指す。


So welcome to the new reality of where this madness is going. The embattled Supreme Court nominee secured 50 votes in the Senate and was sworn in as Justice Brett Kavanaugh. The Democrats knew that they would lose so they turned the appointment into a dramatic confrontation that was so outrageous at this point NOBODY in their right mind would ever again throw their hat into the ring. This was all staged and it is intended to be taken all the way into 2020. My live sources say the strategy will make Kavanaugh as a poster child and they will label him as a rapist from here on out.

We have crossed the line. There is no going back. We will now face the Decline & Fall of the United States and this is part of the shift of the Financial Capital of the world to China after 2032.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/hillary-advocates-violence-unless-democrats-win/


・この Martin Armstrong のタイトルの主張と真逆なのが Scott Adams の主張。

・Scott Adams は以下のように主張/予想している。


・Martin Armstrong の主張/予想のベースには次のような諦念がある。

  ・Trump がどんなに成果をあげようが、彼の任期は最大でもあと 6年でしかない


  ・Scott Adams の主張/予想には彼独特の affirmation 成分がたっぷり含まれている。なので話半分に聞くべき。
  ・Martin Armstrong の主張/予想はたぶん外れる。

・なぜ Martin Armstrong の主張/予想が筈れのか? それはアメリカが繁栄しようがの衰退しようが、中国経済にとってそれは悪影響となるだろうから。アメリカが衰退すれば、中国経済はより大きく衰退する。最大の理由は、中国経済は自立しておらず、アメリカ市場に依存していることにある。


Martin Armstrong : 2020年のアメリカでは経済が大混乱し、通貨危機の可能性がある。


Then 2020 lines up with complete economic chaos and the risk of a currency crisis with the beginning of pressure for a monetary reset - and of course they blame Trump if they have not figured a way to drag him out of office or pay a Mexican to assassinate him who is dying of cancer - remember Jack Ruby?

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/the-view-of-american-from-afar/


・Martin Armstrong はこの先の5-6年間を

  アメリカ --> 経済大混乱、通貨危機
  中国   --> 経済成長維持


・だが、この Martin Armstrong の予測は大きく外れる筈。


Martin Armstrong : 2032年に中国がアメリカを凌ぐ理由



  Martin Armstrong:2032年、中国が経済力でアメリカを凌いでいる筈だ。 (+追加2)

 という Martin Armstrong の予想を取り上げた。

・最近の Blog で Martin Armstrong がこの予想の根拠を語っている。

・一言でその理由を言えば…。Trump が任期を終え、その後任となる大統領が共和党側だろうが民主党側だろうが、プロの政治家(法律家上がり)が大統領職を引き継ぐから、アメリカの政治や経済の状況が行き詰まる…というもの。


I have stated numerous times, my deep concern is what comes AFTER Trump? There is no question they will seek to stuff a career politician into office be it Democrat or Republican. As the debt crisis expands, they will turn to raise taxes. They will in the process destroy the very democratic process and we will witness rising taxes quite dramatically until the entire political system breaks apart.

This is simply the pattern throughout history. I do not see anyone who would stand in the way of this trend among the ranks in Washington. Nobody from the private sector will dare step forward again. Any career politician will defend their own self-interest and raise taxes trying to hold on to power regardless if they are Democrat or Republican. This is simply how the West enters its Decline and Fall and China will emerge as the sane economy after 2032.

You can see the policy already in Europe. Brussels will defend the Euro at all costs even if it suppresses the people because now it is just about their pensions and jobs. The Euro fails and there goes Brussels and its bureaucracy off the edge. There is no hope on the horizon of a knight in shining armor to come to save the day.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/venezuela-the-flight-of-capital-from-public-to-private/


・Martin Armstrong は中国がこれまでの成長パワーを維持し続けると予想しているようだ。アメリカは Trump 後に行き詰まるから、成長が衰えない中国に抜かれると。



Scott Adams : ヨーロッパの社会主義的政策が失敗していないのはアメリカが国防費を負担しているからだ。




・26:50 あたり。



・Scott Adams - Socialism, Woodward’s Book, Nike, and Airplane Fear Persuasion


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