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Martin Armstrong:2032年、中国が経済力でアメリカを凌いでいる筈だ。 (+追加2)

Update


・(2018-08-17)その根拠を語っているので追加。

・(2018-08-08)追加。

はじめに


・Martin Armstrong のタイトルの予想は過去記事でも紹介したような気がするが、彼のこの予想は 3年前から変わっていない。

2015年8月の主張


・0:35 あたり。2032年には中国がアメリカを経済力で凌ぐだろう。

動画(10:10)


・Q&A with Martin Armstrong - Full length



今も同じ主張をしている



This is clearly the end of the West as a world economic power. The financial capital of the world will be shifting to China and Asia after 2032.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/2032-how-hard-do-we-fall/


(2018-06-23)




(以下、2018-08-08 追加分)

はじめに


・Martin Armstrong が、この主張をまとめたレポートを 1万円ほどで一般向けに販売しだしたという話を記録。

一部引用



China on the Rise - How-When-Why China Becomes the new Financial Capital of the World by Martin Armstrong



China on the Rise Report
$95.00

By 2032, China will dethrone the United States to become the world’s leading economic powerhouse. This cycle has been exasperated by government mismanagement and failed economic policies centered in socialism. With special attention to the Chinese yuan and Shanghai composite, this report examines how, when, and why China will become the new financial capital of the world.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/china/china-on-the-rise-how-when-why-china-becomes-the-new-financial-capital-of-the-world-by-martin-armstrong/


コメント


・今後、中国経済は低成長モードへと移行するのは避けがたい…このように誰しも予想している筈だが、Martin Armstrong は依然として中国経済を楽観視している。

・楽観視する最大の理由は彼独自の経済サイクル理論に基づく長期予想。このあたりはオカルトじみてくるので彼以外には理解し難いものがある。

(2018-08-08)




(以下、2018-08-17 追加分)

はじめに


・Martin Armstrong が読者からの質問に応えて、中国が経済力でアメリカを凌ぐようになるという彼の予想の根拠を述べている。

一部引用



Why is Asia Rising Against the West


Some people have written in and asked why we have issued a report that shows how and when China will displace the USA and the West as the Financial Capital of the world. Let me explain some interesting facts. If we look at the top ten cities for tourism, you will find that the half is in Asia. The world’s most visited city is actually Hong Kong. The top two are Asia as well.

...

So to answer those who ask WHY will China surpass the USA, the answer is simple. The trend is already set in motion and the West just has to that Marxism not only violated the Ten Commandments, but it suppresses human ingenuity and stunts economic growth. The more we move to try to save the collapse of socialism, it is like Erdogan refusing to accept responsibility for the collapse of the Turkish lira.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/southeast_asia/why-is-asia-rising-against-the-west/


コメント


・呆れた。冗談では…と疑ってしまう。最初の理由(観光客数の比較)ではまともな理由にはならない。

・それに、

So to answer those who ask WHY will China surpass the USA, the answer is simple. The trend is already set in motion and the West just has to that Marxism not only violated the Ten Commandments, but it suppresses human ingenuity and stunts economic growth.

 という二つ目の理由は、誰がどう見てもアメリカより、むしろ中国に当てはまる。

(2018-08-17)


履歴


(2018-06-23) 作成
(2018-08-08) 追加
(2018-08-17) 追加

Martin Armstrong:カリフォルニアの不動産市場の下落が始まる。

一部引用



California Real Estate Peaks and Begin a Crash


California has joined the states with not just the highest taxes in America, but it has become one of those states that people are just leaving resulting i9n a net outward-migration. There is a logical consequence when a state becomes a place people are trying to flee from ? real estate MUST decline in value. Already, sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums in Southern California has declined 11.8% year over year. Prices rallied and reached a record high in 2018. The median price paid for all Southern California homes that were sold in June 2018 was a record high reaching $536,250, according to CoreLogic. This was reported as a 7.3% increase compared to June of 2017. When you see such short-term surges in a market, that is often the sign of how every market peaks. Real estate is no exception.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/california-real-estate-peaks-and-begin-a-crash/


(2018-08-17)

Martin Armstrong:EU やトルコで最悪の悪夢が現実化しつつある。

引用



The Euro has continued to fall dropping at the time of this post to 11343. The bottom of this channel lies at the 11315 area and behind the curtain, our phone is in meltdown mode. After’s Italy warning that the ECB has to keep QE going or the entire bond market will collapse forcing the breakup of the EU has finally made many of the dollar-haters start to realize that indeed Draghi has destroyed the European economy and bond market.

Turkey appears to have gone to Qatar asking for financial help and they were turned away. I have warned that we were entering the crisis phase. Obviously, the WEC is going to be probably one of the most interesting and challenging sessions so far. Our worst nightmares are coming alive and far too many people in government are still refusing to face reality.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/our-worst-nightmares-are-staring-to-take-shape-in-reality/


(2018-08-15)

「QE → ドルが溢れる→ ドルが下落。それに備えて Gold や仮想通貨を買え」はタワゴトだ。

はじめに


・…と Martin Armstrong が述べている。

一部引用



The Shortage of US Dollars


20180812_mb.jpg


The Adjusted Monetary Base is the sum of currency (including coin) in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, plus deposits held by depository institutions at Federal Reserve Banks. These data are adjusted for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This peaked with the Economic Confidence Model turn in 2015 on October 1st. The Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet and believe it or not, there has been growing a SHORTAGE of dollars contrary to those who keep saying the world is awash with dollars so buy gold, cryptocurrencies, or whatever.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/usd/the-shortage-of-us-dollars/


(2018-08-12)

Martin Armstrong:Bitcoin が法定通貨に取って代わることは絶対にない。

はじめに


・Scott Adams はかつて Blog 動画の中で「Bitcoin が法定通貨に取って代わるかも…」と述べていた。

・そのような仮想通貨ファンの期待を Martin Armstrong が完全否定している。

一部引用



You have to separate reality from fiction. That does not mean that Bitcoin is not an asset class. It just is not a currency that has any real footing within the economy. So there is NO POSSIBLE WAY any government will allow a PRIVATE cryptocurrency to replace a national currency. That will NEVER happen.

reff: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/cryptocurrency-private-v-public/


(2018-08-12)
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