中国の不良債権は GDP の 5.3%(公式発表)ではなく 20% 以上だ

はじめに


・…という説を紹介。


一部引用



Analyst Lays Out China's "Doomsday" Scenario


The first time we laid out the dire calculations about what is perhaps the biggest mystery inside China's financial system, namely the total amount of its non-performing loans, by former Fitch analyst Charlene Chu we called it a "neutron bomb" scenario, because unlike virtually every other rosy forecast the most dire of which topped out at around 8%, Chu argued that the amount of bad debt in China was no less than a whopping 21% of total loans.




So if Chu held the wildly outlier view nearly two years ago that China's NPLs amount to 21% of total, what is her latest estimate? The number is a doozy: in her latest report, Chu estimates that bad debt in China’s financial system will reach as much as Rmb51 trillion , or $7.6 trillion, by the end of this year, more than five times the value of bank loans officially classified as either non-performing or one notch above." That estimate implies a bad-debt ratio of 34%, orders of magnitude above the official 5.3% ratio for those two categories at the end of June.

20170818_china_.jpg


Ref: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-17/analyst-lays-out-chinas-doomsday-scenario


(2017-08-18)

Brandon Smith:中国は国際金融支配層(グローバリスト連合)に協調している

はじめに


・一つ前の記事に関連して、タイトルの件に絞って紹介する。

・ドイツと中国はグローバリスト側についている…という話は過去記事でも取り上げたはず。

抜粋(デタラメ)


・中国は国際金融支配層(=グローバリスト連合)に協調している。


In 2017, though, something has changed. China's deep ties to the global banking establishment, their open statements on their affection for the IMF, and their recent induction as the flagship nation for the IMF's Special Drawing Rights system make it clear that they are working for the globalist agenda, not against it. This is not necessarily a new thing behind the curtain; China has done the bidding of globalist institutions for decades. Today though, the relationship is displayed far more publicly.


Ref: http://www.alt-market.com/articles/3254-korean-war-part-ii-why-its-probably-going-to-happen


(2017-08-17)

Simon Black:年金ファンドの絶望的苦境 → 年金生活者が危うい

はじめに


・Simon Black が年金ファンドの絶望的な苦境の実態とその原因について述べているので紹介する。

さわり(デタラメ)


・CalPERS(世界的に著名な超大型 年金ファンド)を事例に取り上げている部分が興味深い。

・いわく…

  ・CalPERS は最近 10年間の投資利益が 5.1%(平均)だが、これでは赤字。7% の利益が必要。

  ・だが、現在の低金利環境下では 7% は絶望的。ハイ・リスクのジャンク・ボンドでさえ 5%しかない。

・年金ファンドの運営が危うい → 年金生活者の生活が危うい。

一部引用



Here's How Government Pension Funds Are Trying To Close Their $7 Trillion Funding Gap


But according to Credit-rating agency Moody’s, state and local government pension plans are also $7 trillion short in funding.

And corporate pension funds are underfunded by $375 billion.



The reason is quite simple: investment returns are simply too low.

Pension fund managers invest all of their funds’ cash in various assets? stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. with the hope of generating safe investment returns.

And that’s precisely the problem.

With interest rates still hovering near the lowest levels they’ve ever been in 5,000+ years of recorded human history, it’s very difficult to achieve a significant investment return without taking on substantial risk.

Most pension funds require a minimum annual investment return of between 7% to 8% in order to stay solvent and be able to pay out their beneficiaries over the long-term.

California Public Employee’s Retirement System (CalPERS), for example, is one of the largest pension funds in the world.

And over the last 10 years CalPERS’ investment return has averaged just 5.1%. They need 7% to stay afloat.

SAFELY earning 7% is a difficult task today: government bonds in the US yield around 2%. Even junk bonds, which are ultra-risky, yield just 5%.

...

Bottom line, it’s EXTREMELY difficult for very large funds to safely earn 7-8%.


Ref: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-16/heres-how-government-pension-funds-are-trying-close-their-7-trillion-funding-gap


(2017-08-17)

Simon Black:賃貸マンションの収益は 3~4% でしかない

はじめに


・Simon Black の記事の中からタイトルの部分に絞って紹介する。

一部引用



Real estate returns are also falling, with the average apartment building yielding between 3-4% according to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts.

In fact the biggest apartment-focused real estate investment trust, Equity Residential, earns less than 3%.


Ref: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-16/heres-how-government-pension-funds-are-trying-close-their-7-trillion-funding-gap


コメント


・ウォール街の連中が雪崩のように住居レンタル業界に参入している(Trump の娘婿、Jared Kushner の本業だったビジネスもこれに関与している)というから、ボロ儲けかと思いきや意外と…。

(2017-08-17)

Mark Spitznagel:仮想通貨は Safe Haven(資産の安全な避難所) にはならない。なぜなら…

はじめに


・…という記事を紹介する。

・仮想通貨は Gold や不動産のように内在する価値を持たないから…というのがよく見られる批判で、ソース記事もそれは否定していない。だが、もっと別の興味深い理由を挙げているので紹介する。

抜粋(デタラメ)


・仮想通貨は Bitcoin の他に様々な亜種がある。

・それらは互いに競合しており、シェアを削り合う関係にある。

・よってより優れた技術の仮想通貨の登場によって価値が急落する可能性が付き纏う。

出典


https://mises.org/blog/why-cryptocurrencies-will-never-be-safe-havens

(2017-08-16)
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