Lanxin Xiang : 台湾が独立を宣言すれば、24時間以内に中国が侵攻する筈


・Lanxin Xiang は中国生まれ、中国籍を保有。

Xiang Lanxin (b. 1956, Chinese: 相?欣; pinyin: Xi?ng Lanx?n)[1] is a Chinese scholar of international relations and the history of modern China. His work focuses on history and security in East Asia, and on Chinese governance and democracy.

Early life and career
Xiang was born in Nanjing, Jiangsu in 1956.[2] He attended college at Fudan University in Shanghai before moving to the United States to earn an MA and PhD from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in 1990.[1][2] He began serving as a professor of International History and Politics Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland in 1996.[3] Xiang has spent the majority of his career working outside of China, though he still maintains Chinese citizenship.

ref: Xiang Lanxin - Wikipedia -


And that’s why Xiang never rules out even an invasion of Taiwan by Chinese troops. He games the scenario of a Taiwanese government announcing, “We are independent” coupled with a visit by the Secretary of State:

“That would provoke a limited military action, and could turn into an escalation. Think about Sarajevo. That worries me. If Taiwan declares independence, Chinese invade in less than 24 hours. “

How Beijing miscalculates
Unlike most Chinese scholars, Xiang is refreshingly frank about Beijing’s own shortcomings: “Several things should have been better controlled. Like abandoning Deng Xiaoping’s original advice that China should bide its time and keep a low profile. Deng, in his last will, had set a timeline for that, at least 50 years.”

ref: Shedding light on the limits of Chinese power - Asia Times -



"それは限定的な軍事行動を誘発し、エスカレートする可能性がある。サラエボのことを考えてみろ。それが心配だ。台湾が独立を宣言すれば 24時間以内に中国が侵略してくる “



・当然ながら、この Lanxin Xiang も中国共産党の影響下にある筈。つまり対米牽制発言。




AI 対 人間:F-16 模擬空中戦の動画


・DARPA の開発した AI 操縦機と人間の最優秀パイロットの操縦機の模擬空中戦。

・まだ開発されて間もないのに、 AI 操縦機が恐るべき技量を示している。ナミのパイロットなら太刀打ちできないかも。


・4:12 から開始。ピンクが AI 操縦機。

Welcome to the AlphaDogfight Trials Competition Event #3 - Final simulated dogfight between the Champion AI and an Air Force F-16 pilot!

The DARPA AlphaDogfight Trials aim to demonstrate the feasibility of developing effective, intelligent autonomous agents capable of defeating adversary aircraft in a dogfight.

AlphaDogfight Trials Competition #3 is being broadcast live from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab (JHU/APL) via a ZoomGov Webinar on 18-20 August 2020.

DARPA’s AlphaDogfight Trials seeks to advance the state of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies applied to air combat operations. The trials are a computer-based competition designed to demonstrate advanced AI algorithms that can perform simulated within-visual-range air combat maneuvering, otherwise known as a dogfight. The goal is to use the dogfight as the challenge problem to increase performance and trust in AI algorithms and bring together the AI research and operator communities.

In August 2019, DARPA selected eight technically and organizationally diverse teams to compete in the AlphaDogfight Trials with the purpose to energize and expand a base of researchers and developers applying AI technologies to complex operational problems.

The first of three AlphaDogfight Trials competition events was held at JHU/APL in November 2019. Trial #1 was an exhibition match with the opportunity for teams to compete against different APL developed adversary agents and test the simulation environment at scale.

Trial #2 held in January 2020, was the first competition where teams were ranked against each other and tested their agents against more challenging adversary agents.

Trial #3 is the final competition. Teams will compete against each other in a bracket style competition with the top team advancing to fight against a USAF fighter pilot in a simulated dogfight on Aug. 20.

AlphaDogfight Trials is a precursor to the DARPA Air Combat Evolution (ACE) program, which involves AI development and demonstration in three program phases ? modeling and simulation, sub-scale aircraft, and full-scale aircraft testing. Ultimately, ACE will be flying AI algorithms on live aircraft to demonstrate trusted, scalable, human-level autonomy for air combat.


AlphaDogfight Trials Competition Event #3 - チャンピオンAIと空軍のF-16パイロットとのドッグファイトの最終模擬戦へようこそ!

国防高等研究計画局(DARPA)のAlphaDogfight Trialsは、ドッグファイトで敵機を打ち負かすことができる効果的で知的な自律型エージェントの開発の実現可能性を実証することを目的としています。

AlphaDogfight Trials Competition #3は、ジョンズ・ホプキンス大学応用物理学研究所(JHU/APL)から、2020年8月18日~20日にZoomGovウェビナーで生中継されます。

DARPAのAlphaDogfight Trialsは、航空戦闘作戦に適用される人工知能(AI)技術の状態を向上させようとしています。トライアルは、ドッグファイトとして知られている模擬的な視覚範囲内での航空戦闘演習を実行できる高度なAIアルゴリズムを実証するために設計されたコンピュータベースの競争である。目標は、ドッグファイトを課題問題として使用して、AIアルゴリズムの性能と信頼性を高め、AI研究者と運用者のコミュニティをまとめることです。


2019年11月には、3つのAlphaDogfight Trialsの競技イベントの第1回目がJHU/APLで開催されました。トライアル#1は、チームがAPLが開発したさまざまな敵対エージェントと対戦し、シミュレーション環境をスケールでテストする機会を提供するエキシビションマッチでした。



AlphaDogfight Trialsは、DARPAのAir Combat Evolution (ACE)プログラムの前身であり、モデリングとシミュレーション、サブスケールの航空機、実物大の航空機テストの3つのプログラムフェーズでAIの開発とデモンストレーションを行います。最終的にACEは、AIアルゴリズムを実在する航空機上で飛行させ、信頼性が高く、スケーラブルで、人間レベルの自律性を空戦のために実証する予定です。


AlphaDogfight Trials Final Event


ロシアの Poseidon(無人長距離核魚雷)の解説動画








SUT Public Webinar 13th July 2020 - The Russian Poseidon nuclear AUV


世界を全面核戦争から救った男:Vasili Alexandrovich Arkhipov と Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov


・Brent Swancer がソース記事の著者。


・Vasili Alexandrovich Arkhipov については下の過去記事で取り上げた。

  1962年10月27日、世界を全面核戦争から救った男(+追加、修正) (2015-02-08)

・Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov については下の過去記事で取り上げた。

  1983年、ソ連軍将校の判断で核戦争の危機が回避されていた (途中:その1) (2015-04-17)

  1983年9月26日、早期警戒システムの誤動作で核戦争勃発寸前に至った (2017-04-21)

・以下では Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov の事例がやや詳しく書かれているので引用しておく。日本語が必要な方はご自分で機械翻訳を。


・このような重大な歴史的事実を、なぜか歴史学者の Yuval Harari は完全に無視して愚劣な発言をしている。

  Yuval Harari のダメな面が露呈した最近のインタビュー (2020-03-20)


・ET が核戦争には介入し、防止してくれる…そう信じ込んでいる 民間 UFO 研究者や UFO ファンが少なからずいる。例えば下の Kathleen Marden など。だが、そのような ET の発言など全く信じるに値しないことがタイトルの事例からも明瞭。

・Kathleen Marden も、他の UFO 研究者と同じように「ET は核戦争には介入し、防止する」と信じている。なぜなら、ET がそう伝えてきたからだと。

・だが、その ET のメッセージを信じるのは愚か過ぎる。


ref: Kathleen Marden:ET とテレパシーで交信、ET から情報を download した。(途中:その1) (2018-04-14)



In 1983, the Cold War was in full effect and the Americans and Soviets still had obscene numbers of nuclear missiles aimed at each other, manned by those with itchy trigger fingers. On 26 September 1983 in the early morning hours, a Soviet lieutenant colonel by the name of Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov was alone on duty during an overnight shift, monitoring the Soviet Union’s early-warning missile system, which was designed to track and warn of incoming nuclear warheads. It would have been a pretty boring detail typically, and he was tired from the long shift, his thoughts drifting and daydreaming, but on this morning, he was snapped out of his stupor by an alarm registered on the system. Blinking the drowsiness from his eyes he focused on the display and saw that everyone’s worst fear had happened. The Americans had launched against them. He would later say:

The siren howled, but I just sat there for a few seconds, staring at the big, back-lit, red screen with the word ‘launch’ on it. A minute later the siren went off again. The second missile was launched. Then the third, and the fourth, and the fifth. Computers changed their alerts from ‘launch’ to ‘missile strike.’ I had all the data [to suggest there was an ongoing missile attack]. If I had sent my report up the chain of command, nobody would have said a word against it. There was no rule about how long we were allowed to think before we reported a strike. But we knew that every second of procrastination took away valuable time; that the Soviet Union’s military and political leadership needed to be informed without delay. All I had to do was to reach for the phone; to raise the direct line to our top commanders ? but I couldn’t move. I felt like I was sitting on a hot frying pan.

Indeed, he had full computer readouts to this effect, all undeniably showing that a nuclear attack was in progress, and the protocol for the situation called for him to report to his superiors immediately so that they could initiate a retaliatory strike, but he did not do this. It was a flagrant dereliction of duty, and the longer he waited the less effective a counterstrike would be, but he hesitated out of doubt and knowing that his next action would mean the fate of the world. He would say, “’I knew perfectly well that nobody would be able to correct my mistake if I had made one.” And so he waited there in the dim glow of the computer screen as it told him nuclear war had broken out and that missiles were already coming down. Something about it didn’t feel right to him, and he would explain:

There were 28 or 29 security levels. After the target was identified, it had to pass all of those ‘checkpoints’. I was not quite sure it was possible, under those circumstances. Twenty-three minutes later I realized that nothing had happened. If there had been a real strike, then I would already know about it. It was such a relief.

He also felt that just five missiles didn’t make sense, as the U.S. attack would have been more decisive, an all-out onslaught. It would turn out that the whole thing had been a malfunction. Sunlight reflecting off of high-altitude clouds had confused the satellite system, which had made it malfunction and misread the data as incoming missiles. Although Petrov was not authorized to launch missiles himself, it is widely believed that with the strong data he had and time being of the essence, his report would have most certainly led to a nuclear strike against the United States, triggering World War III, and he has been recognized as having single-handedly averted catastrophe by disobeying his orders. Nuclear security expert Bruce G. Blair has said of the incident:

The Soviet Union as a system?not just the Kremlin, not just Andropov, not just the KGB?but as a system, was geared to expect an attack and to retaliate very quickly to it. It was on hair-trigger alert. It was very nervous and prone to mistakes and accidents. The false alarm that happened on Petrov’s watch could not have come at a more dangerous, intense phase in US?Soviet relations.

Petrov had even admitted that if it had been anyone else on duty that day the nuclear Armageddon would have certainly begun. Despite this, he received no award from the Soviet military, and he would retire early, but he would receive commendations and the World Citizen Award, and Dresden Peace Prize by other countries for the part he played in averting a catastrophe. These are very worrying instances that a lot of people are blissfully aware even happened at all, and they have amazingly been lost to history and sort of swept under the carpet. Yet, rest assured that the only reason the world hasn’t been destroyed can likely be attributed to these two guys who the whole thing just happened to catch on a good day.

ref: The Times When A Single Person Averted a Nuclear War | Mysterious Universe -




・先日、Trump が武漢肺炎がらみで中国政府を厳しく糾弾したとき、真珠湾攻撃や 9.11 事件を引き合いに出した。それを聞いていてふと、タイトルの件に思い至った。




・だが、本当は外務省の怠慢が理由で宣戦布告が遅れたのではなく、意図して宣戦布告を遅らせたのではないか? つまり当時の日本国家の最高機関の意思決定として故意に宣戦布告を遅らせたのではないか?














・このことは、アメリカ側だって十分承知(ゆえに絶対に許す気にならない)、日本政府もすっとぼけているが、敗戦時に証拠をすべて焼き去ったので誰も論証はできないと。あとは 1994年に調査委員会のおざなりな調査結果を発表して幕引き…w


・それにしても…。Scott Adams もそうだが、アメリカ人が WWII 参戦時の日本を語る時、枕詞のように「卑劣な闇討ち(真珠湾攻撃)」を持ち出す(目の前に日本人がいれば口にするのは避けるだろうが)。当然、Trump もハワイでの演説で真珠湾攻撃の件を持ち出した。


・James Rickards のソース記事のタイトルは The Currency Wars’ “Pearl Harbor”(通貨戦争における真珠湾攻撃)となっており、次の文章から始まっている。

The most dramatic battle yet in the currency wars took place last Thursday. It was the financial equivalent of a Pearl Harbor sneak attack…


・本来、真珠湾攻撃の直前に宣戦布告がなされる計画だったが、宣戦布告が真珠湾攻撃の後になってしまった。遅れた理由は外務省の重大な過失(怠慢)で、この宣戦布告の遅延問題は Wikipedia の下の記事などでも詳しい。これほどの大失策を引き起こし、後々まで国益に破壊的損害をもたらしたにも関わらず、誰も責任を取っていない。このように昭和初期から現代に至るまで外務省は無責任、無能役人の巣窟となっている。


Ref: James Rickards : SNB の転換がポーランドやハンガリーで住宅債務危機を引き起こす (2015.01.24)

ref: Scott Adams:イスラエルとパレスチナ和平交渉を日本で…という提案を高く評価 (2017-12-28)


横着者 (ご連絡はコメント欄にて)

Author:横着者 (ご連絡はコメント欄にて)