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Martin Armstrong:国家間の紛争が起きても Gold は高騰しない。なぜなら…

はじめに


・国家間の紛争が起きれば Gold は高騰する。だからその気配を察したら手遅れになる前に Gold を買え!…これが Gold ファンの定説。

・Martin Armstrong がこの定説を完全否定している。その根拠が面白い。

・インド人の Gold 嗜好に変化が…という話も注目。

一部引用



Gold & the Changing Fundamentals



QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You are obviously the person worth listening to when it comes to gold. Every fundamental these people have argued to support gold has proven completely false. Confusion in gold is really very high. You have to be really stupid at this point to listen to this nonsense. Can you express any opinion on gold?

It would be very helpful



ANSWER: You are correct, that concerns over U.S.-Russian relations, coming talks on the Korean Peninsula, action in Syria over a suspected chemical weapons attacks and uneasiness over trade conflicts would normally be the battle cry to buy gold. Traditionally, this would form a cocktail of geopolitical uncertainty that would lead to screams buy gold! The uncertainty has not led to support for gold. They are proving to be a narrative that no longer seems to be factors for the bulls.


...


Even the pitch that India buys gold because it is a tradition is starting to show it to moves with cycles. The younger generations do not share the same view of gold as the older generation. Things do change with the generations and the problem has always been that those of one generation judge the future ONLY by its own belief system.


ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-the-changing-fundamentals/


(2018-08-17)

Martin Armstrong:金貨や銀貨も名目貨幣(fiat money)だ。

はじめに


・Martin Armstrong が紀元前からの通貨の歴史に基づいて、タイトルの主張をしている。

・Gold ファンのみならず、一般的な常識にも対立する主張。だが、彼ほど経済や通貨の歴史に詳しい人間は、Gold ファンの中にはまずいない筈。その意味で一聴の価値がある。

一部引用



QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I do not understand your statement that even when coins were silver and gold, they were still a form of fiat money. Could you explain that please?


ANSWER:
...
You can easily see that there are counterfeits and then there are imitations. The raw metal was worth LESS in trade than a coin. This is why I take issue with those who think that merely minting a coin from gold or silver means it is NOT fiat. That is simply not true. The coinage was worth MORE than the raw metal involved.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/americas-economic-history/precious-metals-was-worth-less-than-the-coinage/


コメント


・紀元前の(つまり紙幣が存在しなかった頃の)硬貨の歴史に基づいて、タイトルの主張をすることには大きな疑問を感じる。現代のカネの大半はすでに紙幣でも硬貨でもなく、銀行のデータベースに記載されたデジタル・データであり、物理的な実体を持っていない。つまりハード・ディスク上の「書き換え可能な磁化パターン」でしかない。

・よって現代において、金貨と対比すべきは名目貨幣としてのコイン(や紙幣)ではなく、この実体を持たない磁化パターンの方。

(2018-08-14)

Martin Armstrong:Mike Maloney らの「Gold こそが money 」説を完全否定

はじめに


・Gold ファンは Mike Maloney らの唱える「Gold こそが money」説は周知の筈。

・Martin Armstrong がその説を完全否定している。その根拠の部分は長くなるので引用を省略。

・なお、Martin Armstrong は、かつて Gold 取引量で全米トップ・クラスだった実績を持つという人物。なので筋金入りの Gold 専門家でもある(or あった?)。

一部引用



They pitch that ONLY gold is money and if we return to a gold standard that every evil will be cured. They believe that money must be “tangible” and as such, they fail completely to comprehend the true nature of the economy.

ref: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/until-we-understand-the-real-wealth-of-a-nation-progress-cannot-be-achieved/


(2018-07-24)

Ian Telfer:Gold 生産はピークを過ぎ今後は減少。今年末には $1,500 以上に。

一部引用



“If I could give one sentence about the gold mining business … it’s that in my life, gold produced from mines has gone up pretty steadily for 40 years,” said Telfer. “Well, either this year it starts to go down, or next year it starts to go down, or it’s already going down.”

“We’re right at peak gold here,” he added.

Although gold prices sank two per cent to US$1,289.86 per ounce this week, sliding below the psychologically significant US$1,300 mark for the first time this year, Telfer said that day that he remained “bullish” and predicted gold prices would surpass US$1,500 or US$1,600 per ounce before the end of the year.

20180723_gold_peak.jpg


ref: https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/mining/were-right-at-peak-gold-all-the-major-deposits-have-been-discovered-declares-goldcorp-chairman


コメント


・当面、ドル高が予想されているから今年末の $1,500 という予想は外れる筈。

(2018-07-23)

Martin Armstrong:Gold が騰がるのは 2020年-2021年ごろ。

抜粋(デタラメ)


・31:00 あたり。その理由は…(略)

動画(51:30)


・Martin Armstrong - Rates are Going to Jump to 10% Instantaneously


(2018-06-12)
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