James Rickards:BRICS が Gold の裏付けのある仮想通貨を採用するかも。


According to Russian government officials attending a recent monetary conference in Moscow, Russia, China and their BRICS allies are moving toward their own gold trading system (bypassing London and New York).

From there it’s a small step toward a new gold-backed digital currency using distributed ledger technology and military-grade encryption. Distributed ledger technology is another term for the blockchain technology I discussed above.

But unlike cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, this digital system is backed by gold.

Once that system is up and running, the BRICS can trade and settle oil, commodities, weapons, manufactured goods and the overall balance of payments without using dollars or Western financial intermediaries at all.

And from there, a global loss of confidence in the dollar is not far behind. Do you think bitcoin will win the most in this scenario?

It won’t. The big winner in all of this will be gold.

ref: https://dailyreckoning.com/jim-rickards-changed-mind-bitcoin/


Simon Black:Gold ブームがやってくる。


・Simon Black が Gold 採掘に関する専門家の発言を取りあげているので紹介する。

・Gold の生産量が縮小しているので、近い将来、Gold ブームがやってくる…という趣旨。


According to Pierre Lassonde, founder of the gold royalty giant Franco-Nevada and former head of Newmont Mining-

If you look back to the 70s, 80s and 90s, in every one of those decades, the industry found at least one 50+ million-ounce gold deposit, at least ten 30+ million ounce deposits, and countless 5 to 10 million ounce deposits.

But if you look at the last 15 years, we found no 50-million-ounce deposit, no 30 million ounce deposit and only very few 15 million ounce deposits.

So where are those great big deposits we found in the past? How are they going to be replaced? We don’t know.

ref: https://www.sovereignman.com/international-diversification-strategies/the-coming-boom-in-gold-prices-23378/


・Simon Black のタイトルの発言は鵜呑みにはできない。なぜなら、Simon Black は別記事で次のような主張もしているゆえに…w

Bitcoin will go to $40,000 this year. . .

ref: https://www.sovereignman.com/investing/bitcoin-will-go-to-40000-this-year-23405/


James Rickards:Gold が $10,000 まで高騰する根拠。




The U.S., China, Japan and the Eurozone (countries using the euro), have a combined M1 money supply of $24 trillion. Those same countries have approximately 33,000 tons of official gold.

Historically, a successful gold standard requires 40% gold backing to maintain confidence. That was the experience of the United States from 1913 to 1965 when the 40% backing was removed.

Taking 40% of $24 trillion means that $9.6 trillion of gold is required.

Taking the available 33,000 tons of gold and dividing that into $9.6 trillion gives an implied gold price of just over $9,000 per ounce. Considering that global M1 money supply continues to grow faster than the quantity of official gold, this implied price will rise over time, so $10,000 per ounce seems like a reasonable estimate.

ref: https://dailyreckoning.com/money-gold-nothing-else/


James Rickards:予想される Gold の下落幅 20% に対し、上昇幅は 650% だ。


1. Gold has asymmetric performance characteristics. It has limited downside (20%) but substantial upside (650%).

ref: https://dailyreckoning.com/money-gold-nothing-else/


・上昇幅が 650% であるという予想の根拠は一つ前の記事で紹介した。下落幅が 20% である根拠はこの記事では述べられていない。だが、Gold の産出コスト(採掘、精錬費用など)割れが最大の理由だろう。


James Rickards:投資可能な資産の 10% を Gold に割り当てろ。



・10% を Gold に割り当てる理由は…。仮に予想が外れて Gold 価格が 20%下落しても、資産の 2% の損失で済む。2% の損失ならダメージは少ない。


We begin with the 10% allocation. The first step is to determine “investable assets.” This is not the same as net worth. You should exclude your home equity, business equity and any other illiquid or intangible assets that constitute your livelihood. Do not take portfolio market risk with your livelihood or the roof over your head. Once you’ve removed those assets, whatever is left are your “investable assets.” You should allocate 10% of that amount to physical gold.


If gold declines 20%, unlikely in my view, the impact on your overall portfolio is a 2% decline (20% x 10%). That’s not highly damaging and will be made up as equity assets outperform.

ref: https://dailyreckoning.com/money-gold-nothing-else/


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